Projecting Global Mean Sea?Level Change Using CMIP6 Models

The effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) of models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) has increased relative to CMIP5. We explore implications this for global mean sea-level (GMSL) change projections 2100 three emissions scenarios. CMIP6 surface air temperature are substantially higher than CMIP5, but thermal expansion not. Using these as input construct GMSL with IPCC AR5 methods, 95th percentile at only increases by 3–7 cm. Projected rates rise around increase more strongly, though, implying pronounced differences beyond and greater committed rise. Intermodel indicate that EffCS-based model selection may alter ensemble projections. is accurately predicted time-integrated change, thus requires reducing early be mitigated.